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Fewer new cars mean higher emissions down the road

Author: Maureen Bader 2008/08/27

Last year, our premier stood with California Governator Arnold Schwarzenegger and proclaimed his intention to save Mother Earth by lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in B.C. Besides slamming residents with a carbon tax, the premier planned to import California-style auto emission standards to achieve his GHG reduction goal.

But it turned out that even California wasn't able to impose California standards on itself. California needed special permission from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Well, the EPA didn't give California permission, and California -- in typical U.S. style -- is now suing the EPA. What is our government doing Joining California in its lawsuit to force the EPA to let it impose its auto emission standards. The unintended consequences of this move could be truly perverse.

If the B.C. government is successful in helping California get its way -- after handing who-knows-how-many tax dollars to U.S.-based lawyers for a case that could drag on for years -- evidence from other jurisdictions with emission reduction rules indicate that emissions in B.C. would continue to rise.

Once again, we can draw from experience in Europe to see the perverse outcomes of government policies.

New vehicle CO2 emissions in the UK have fallen from over 190 grams per kilometer in 1995 to 170 grams per kilometer in 2005. Nevertheless, per capita CO2 emissions from transportation sources continued to rise in the UK, by 8.2% between 1995 and 2005. Why Because over 33% of vehicles on UK roads are over 10 years old. Creating high new vehicle standards might make politicians look good, but if few people can afford to buy new vehicles, they won't reduce emissions.

According to DesRosiers Auto Consultants, accords like Kyoto "contribute to an ever-increasing affordability challenge for consumers. It will have the effect of delaying the fleet turnover and retarding the penetration of new vehicles having the most fuel- efficient technology."

California wanted to reduce CO2 emissions from new vehicles by 30% below 2002 levels by 2016, or to 128 grams per kilometer. Vehicles in California, and Canada too, emit about 200 grams of CO2 per kilometer now. Unlike the UK, fewer than 9% of vehicles on Canadian roads are over 10 years old. Perversely, introducing California-style vehicle emissions standards could slow the level of vehicle turnover and so do nothing to reduce CO2 emissions in B.C. if people start keeping their cars longer.

Saving the Earth is a worthy goal. But cooling global temperatures so far this century and steadily increasing vehicle emissions in countries with tougher emission standards show the government is not looking at the facts. Before the government rushes into expensive policy propositions, it needs to justify its actions. The 2007 Throne Speech declared from on high that CO2 emissions would be 33% below 2007 levels by 2020, but we still don't know what considerations went into that decision.

Now, B.C. taxpayers are funding environmental activism in the U.S. in an attempt to regulate CO2 emissions. How this helps B.C. citizens or saves Mother Earth is unclear. As new cars become more and more expensive -- or, more accurately, as citizens become less able to afford them -- evidence suggests emissions will continue to rise.


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